Statistical Inference Methods for Two Crossing Survival Curves: A Comparison of Methods

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér—von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.     

气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟

中国梧桐属（Firmiana）在世界梧桐属中占比较大，且除梧桐外其余种均为中国特有且分布范围狭窄的植物种，灭绝风险大，研究气候变化对中国梧桐属树种的影响对于维护生物多样性具有重要的意义。结合多时期第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候变量数据和中国八种梧桐属树种的分布数据，基于R语言kuenm程序包优化的最大熵（Maxent）模型模拟分析中国八种梧桐属树种在多尺度下的潜在适生区，得出梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度、潜在适生区的面积变化和迁移方向、梧桐属多样性保护关键区域及保护空缺。结果表明：（1）梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度为亚洲；（2） Maxent模型的接收者操作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值均大于0.9，表明模型对梧桐属潜在适生区预测结果具有较高准确度；（3）气候变化影响下除云南梧桐（Firmiana major）外其它树种的潜在适生区都将在未来有所扩大；（4）中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区迁移方向主要为东西向，南北向大跨度迁移较少，纬度变化不大；（5）丹霞梧桐（Firmiana danxiaensis）的稳定潜在适生区最小；（6）中国梧桐属多样性保护关键区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区及云南、广东、海南等省区；（7）中国梧桐属多样性保护空缺区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区中部及海南省北部；（8）梧桐属多样性保护关键区域正在为人造地表所侵蚀。研究分析气候变化对中国八种梧桐属树种的影响及其潜在适生区变化、中国梧桐属多样性保护状态，可为中国梧桐属建立多样性保护廊道提供相关建议，为制定多样性保护规划及相应措施提供参考。     

Dynamics of Competition in Populations of Carrot (Daucus carota)

Populations of carrot (Daucus carota) were raised over a widerange of densities (79–5763 plants m^-2) to examine thedynamics of competition in terms of yield–density relationshipsand size variability, and to investigate the effects of nutrientsupply on competition. While the relationship between shootyield and density was asymptotic, the relationship between rootand total yield and density tended to be parabolic. For a giventime and density series the relationship between yield per unitarea and density could best be described by the model: y=w_mD_(1+aD)^b wherey is the yield per unit area,D is density,w_m, a andb arefitted parameters. The parametersw_m anda increased over timebut nutrient availability affected onlyw_m. An extension of thebasic yield-density model is proposed to describe the dynamicsof the yield–density relationship over time: y=kD_{[1+cexp(-rt)]{1+}     

Phylogeny of Stephanidae (Hymenoptera: Apocrita) with a new genus from Upper Cretaceous Myanmar amber

A new wasp species, Lagenostephanus lii Li, Rasnitsyn, Shih and Ren gen. et sp.n. , is assigned to Stephaninae (Hymenoptera: Stephanidae). The specimen is described from the lowermost Upper Cretaceous Myanmar (Burmese) amber. This is the second stephanid wasp described from Myanmar amber after Kronostephanus zigrasi Engel & Grimaldi, representing the earliest fossil occurrences of Stephanidae. Based on morphological characters of all extant and extinct genera, a phylogenetic analysis of Stephanidae was conducted. The results indicate that Schlettereriinae and Stephaninae are monophyletic, whereas Electrostephanus Brues, as the only genus within Electrostephaninae, belongs to Stephaninae. Therefore, we propose a synonymy of Electrostephaninae with Stephaninae. Based on the fossil evidence, we infer that the family of Stephanidae was significantly diverse in the Late Cretaceous and that they originated during the Early Cretaceous or late Jurassic. A key to genera of Stephanidae is provided. This published work has been registered in ZooBank, http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:C082C245-8FD3-42B0-880F-94333286500B .